“What lies ahead for technology in 2016?” I asked myself the other day and decided to write some thoughts down around 4 main interests. Guessing it is probably easier at looking what happened during the last year, and with some “wishful thinking“emphasize the general pattern for 2016.

1. Blockchain concepts got more attention than bitcoin, but (for now) still joined at the hip

• Recap: The blockchain (the ledger)¹Blockchain definition by BitcoinWiki (https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Block_chain) provides a permanent pseudo anonymous audit trail / log of ALL transactions (on the blockchain), whilst bitcoin (the money)²”bitcoin” definition by Bitcoin Wiki (https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Bitcoin) provides incentives for the management and use of the blockchain and act as an active deterrent for the abuser
• The financial sector³R3 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R3_(company)) realized cost savings, “possibly” cutting out the middle men and “easing” on regulatory requirements⁴Global Landscape of Blockchain Companies in Financial Services (http://startupmanagement.org/2015/12/08/update-to-the-global-landscape-of-blockchain-companies-in-financial-services/). But is this just a way to keep costs down, or a shift to a “faster, transparent” delivery of customer needs / requirements?⁵Read the Coindesk Report 2015 (http://www.coindesk.com/coindesks-report-on-banking-and-the-blockchain-now-available/)
• For the rest of the “developing” world none has “yet” delivered tangible benefits, recalling 1996 “unassuming” benefit to the same markets. Yet today remittance in large parts of the world is dependent on SMS and other transactions over open networks…
• Will sidechains ⁶Reddit on Sidechains and Colored Coins (https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2pxy7a/eli5_whats_the_difference_between_sidechains_and/), colored coins⁷Gendal on Sidechains + see comments (http://gendal.me/2014/10/26/a-simple-explanation-of-bitcoin-sidechains/) or Bitcoin 2.0⁸Investopedia on Bitcoin 2.0 (http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/042015/bitcoin-20-applications.asp) deliver the required services, while the blockchain+bitcoin provides the infrastructure framework, like TCP/IP is for HTTP/SMTP/FTP etc.⁹See William Mougayar on TCP/IP (http://startupmanagement.org/2015/01/13/the-crypto-tech-platforms-landscape-via-a-network-effects-lens/)
• So will the blockchain (the ledger) with bitcoin (the money) deliver micro-transactions¹⁰Microtransactions OFF-chain vs ON-chain (https://medium.com/blockcypher-blog/why-can-t-i-send-1-over-the-internet-c90d2773fd9a#.97q3a7r9y)¹¹You Can Now Send Micro-Transactions With Zero Fees (https://blog.coinbase.com/2013/08/06/you-can-now-send-micro-transactions-with-zero-fees/) for the millions of microservices¹²Microservices (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microservices) coming online

2. Apple is doomed – long live Apple

• As when the iPad was first mentioned, the same sneers was again directed at the watch, yet Apple has effectively set a new standard for personal devices
• Question: Apple seems to be “future proofing / preparing” the iPhone (6s, not a 7?), the watch and bigger tablet in conjunction with Apple Pay, HealthKit, HomeKit and CarKit (consolidated under an open Swift environment)¹³Mashable Apple Guide to Kits (http://mashable.com/2015/06/09/apple-developer-kits/#yhLLhU17UqqS), begging the question: where is Apple “boldly” taking us tomorrow?
• Is the AppleTV AppStore a sign of consolidation or a push for a yet-to-be-realized future roadmap?¹⁴MacRumors AppleTV Roundup (http://www.macrumors.com/roundup/apple-tv/)

3. IoT (Internet of Things) are shaking the tree, and the fruit is starting to show (and fall)

• Personal devices to measure, monitor, manage and report is proliferating our world at every possible level¹⁵Goldman-Sachs on Internet of Things Infographic (http://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/pages/internet-of-things/)
• No clear leader has yet been identified to set future direction for implementation and inter-/re-action
• Yet IBM and Apple (here we go again)¹⁶IBM Center for Applied Insights (http://ibmcai.com/2015/01/27/twenty-internet-of-things-trends-to-watch-in-2015/) has been addressing IoT from the top, utilizing their enterprise clients to service particular needs, whilst the thousands of startups around the world is building every conceivable gadget possible from the bottom up (e.g. Kickstarter¹⁷KickStarter (https://www.kickstarter.com/), Indiegogo¹⁸Indiegogo (https://www.indiegogo.com/), Anglelist¹⁹Anglelist (https://angel.co/), Y-Combinator²⁰Y-Combinator (https://www.ycombinator.com/)…)
• And then there is Microsoft, effectively opening up the cloud, potentially achieving what Office did for the “enterprise”,  maybe “Azure cloud” can do for IoT ²¹Microsoft Internet of Things and Azure (https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/server-cloud/internet-of-things/default.aspx)

4. The internet is forced to grow up – encryption, security, availability (reliability) and open technologies sets the pace

• Microsoft buckled under pressure and opened up, delivered Windows 10, embraced the cloud and starting to interact on the open market²²Microsoft IoT of Your Things (https://dev.windows.com/en-us/iot)²³Microsoft and Ethereum (https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/blog/ethereum-blockchain-as-a-service-now-on-azure/)
• But encryption and security has been an issue; back doors closed (read NSA/GCHQ/hackers)²⁴US and UK Government Spying (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/05/nsa-gchq-encryption-codes-security) and the slow convoluted path to constructive dialog is starting (e.g. the “teenagers” demanding ALL the toys and “shopkeepers” defering to the “guardians” to concent). Don’t we love politicians / totalitarians / dictators / thieves…²⁵Apple’s Tim Cook on Encryption and Privacy (http://techcrunch.com/2015/06/02/apples-tim-cook-delivers-blistering-speech-on-encryption-privacy/#.mdlfktm:kVGu)
• IoT devices are appearing everywhere, but who’s allowed to access what, when, where and how?²⁶TechCrunch Who will secure the IoT (http://techcrunch.com/2015/10/02/who-will-step-up-to-secure-the-internet-of-things/)
• Can we manage access, availability etc. with micro-transactions (e.g. bitcoin – not to confuse with micro-payments²⁷Coindesk: The Promise of Bitcoin Micropayments (http://www.coindesk.com/promise-bitcoin-micropayments-corporations-incentives-altcoins/))? If it costs me less than US$0.0001 to access an IoT device, will a spammer / hacker / government want to hack thousands of devices every hour of everyday – with a potential ledger trail?²⁸IBM Blockchain-Power IoT (http://www.coindesk.com/ibm-reveals-proof-concept-blockchain-powered-internet-things/)

Future Dreams

In four broad brush strokes the “impossible dreams” for 2016 might be fulfilled:

1. The blockchain and bitcoin becomes the foundation for micro-services and micro-transactions to address hard-to-fix problems
2. Apple sets the roadmap how enterprise delivers and manage secure technology and enables everybody to profit / benefit by building on-top of it
3. IoT grows up by standardizing (communication / interaction) and delivers a flood of micro (web) services, and someone creates an AppStore for that
4. And by year end all parties realized and agree that a “mature” internet will benefit commerce and governments, providing secure reliable web services

“What a beautiful world“…